There are many polls out declaring doom and gloom for Republicans this mid-term election.
But Eric Bradner of CNN has grim news for Democrats: Don’t expect an easy ride in 2018. In fact, if you’re a betting man, bet on Democrats losing ground. Bradner handicapped the top 10 Senate races in the country most likely to flip this year.
According to his analysis:
The across-the-board primary battles are complicating what should be a hugely advantageous map for Republicans. Democratic senators are running for re-election in 10 — that’s right, 10 — states that President Donald Trump won in 2016. The GOP, meanwhile, only has two members who currently look like they could be in real jeopardy.
At stake is control of the Senate, where the GOP currently holds 52 of 100 seats.
Democrat Senate seats most likely to flip:
Missouri: Sen. Claire McCaskill
Indiana: Sen. Joe Donnelly
West Virginia: Sen. Joe Manchin
Montana: Sen. Jon Tester
North Dakota: Sen. Heidi Heitkamp
Wisconsin: Sen. Tammy Baldwin
Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown
Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson
Republican Senate seats most likely to flip:
Nevada: Sen. Dean Heller
Arizona: Sen. Jeff Flake
I’d encourage you to read the analysis here.
Democrats are on their heels out of pocket in 2018. According to David Wasserman, writing at FiveThirtyEight, Democrats could run the board in swing districts and still be in a terrible position:
Even if Democrats were to win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats representing places that Hillary Clinton won or that Trump won by less than 3 percentage points — a pretty good midterm by historical standards — they could still fall short of the House majority and lose five Senate seats.
This is partly attributable to the nature of House districts: GOP gerrymandering and Democratic voters’ clustering in urban districts has moved the median House seat well to the right of the nation. Part of it is bad timing. Democrats have been cursed by a terrible Senate map in 2018: They must defend 25 of their 48 seats1 while Republicans must defend just eight of their 52.
Democrats must defend 23 seats in the Senate in 2018.